Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC place the risk of widespread hantavirus spread at very low following the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before resolution by mid-June. Most hantavirus strains transmit primarily via rodent excreta aerosols with negligible sustained human-to-human spread, while even Andes virus requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or casual transmission. Historical patterns show sporadic, geographically limited outbreaks without pandemic potential absent major evolutionary shifts in transmissibility. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this scientific consensus on barriers to exponential growth, though undetected rodent reservoir expansion or rare viral adaptation could still introduce limited uncertainty before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Pandemia de hantavirus en 2026?
¿Pandemia de hantavirus en 2026?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$17,883,350 Vol.
$17,883,350 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$17,883,350 Vol.
$17,883,350 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC place the risk of widespread hantavirus spread at very low following the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before resolution by mid-June. Most hantavirus strains transmit primarily via rodent excreta aerosols with negligible sustained human-to-human spread, while even Andes virus requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or casual transmission. Historical patterns show sporadic, geographically limited outbreaks without pandemic potential absent major evolutionary shifts in transmissibility. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this scientific consensus on barriers to exponential growth, though undetected rodent reservoir expansion or rare viral adaptation could still introduce limited uncertainty before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volumen
$17,883,350Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC place the risk of widespread hantavirus spread at very low following the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before resolution by mid-June. Most hantavirus strains transmit primarily via rodent excreta aerosols with negligible sustained human-to-human spread, while even Andes virus requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or casual transmission. Historical patterns show sporadic, geographically limited outbreaks without pandemic potential absent major evolutionary shifts in transmissibility. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this scientific consensus on barriers to exponential growth, though undetected rodent reservoir expansion or rare viral adaptation could still introduce limited uncertainty before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$17,883,350Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC place the risk of widespread hantavirus spread at very low following the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster on a cruise ship, which produced only 13 total cases before resolution by mid-June. Most hantavirus strains transmit primarily via rodent excreta aerosols with negligible sustained human-to-human spread, while even Andes virus requires prolonged close contact rather than efficient airborne or casual transmission. Historical patterns show sporadic, geographically limited outbreaks without pandemic potential absent major evolutionary shifts in transmissibility. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects this scientific consensus on barriers to exponential growth, though undetected rodent reservoir expansion or rare viral adaptation could still introduce limited uncertainty before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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