Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on July 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 5?
78-79°F 30%
80-81°F 22%
76-77°F 21%
74-75°F 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 jul 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 30%
80-81°F 22%
76-77°F 21%
74-75°F 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 jul 2026
71°F or below
$42 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$100 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$68 Vol.
9%
76-77°F
$140 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$73 Vol.
30%
80-81°F
$194 Vol.
22%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$33 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$114 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$445 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$1,344Fecha de finalización
5 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,344Fecha de finalización
5 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model runs and ensemble guidance indicate that scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover following record heat on July 3–4 will limit daytime heating in Chicago on July 5, keeping official highs most likely in the upper 70s to low 80s. This pattern—marked by easterly flow and lingering moisture—explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities (around 23% and 19%) to the 76–77 °F and 78–81 °F bins, while discounting normal climatology near 84 °F. Key resolution hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway Airport; afternoon convection timing and any breaks in cloud cover remain the primary uncertainties that could shift the outcome by a few degrees.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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