Recent forecasts from sources including the Pakistan Meteorological Department and international models indicate Karachi highs on August 25 will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, aligning with the market’s concentration of probability on 32°C (49.5%) and 33°C (29.0%). Late-August conditions feature monsoon moisture, persistent cloud cover, and southwesterly sea breezes from the Arabian Sea that typically cap daytime maxima near the long-term August average of 31–32°C. Recent days have shown similar outcomes, with the August 20 peak resolving at 32°C amid comparable humidity and wind patterns. Model consensus points to limited intensification potential due to these moderating factors, though any reduction in cloud cover or wind could push readings toward 33°C or higher. Updated PMD guidance and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.