Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on July 8?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 8?
40°C 41%
39°C 37%
38°C 10%
41°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 jul 2026
36°C or below
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
10%
39°C
37%
40°C
41%
41°C
10%
42°C
4%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C
<1%
46°C or higher
<1%
40°C 41%
39°C 37%
38°C 10%
41°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 jul 2026
36°C or below
$37 Vol.
1%
37°C
$75 Vol.
3%
38°C
$11 Vol.
10%
39°C
$96 Vol.
37%
40°C
$53 Vol.
41%
41°C
$18 Vol.
10%
42°C
$9 Vol.
4%
43°C
$19 Vol.
1%
44°C
$15 Vol.
1%
45°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
46°C or higher
$38 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$387Fecha de finalización
8 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$387Fecha de finalización
8 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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