**Trader sentiment centers on a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Mediterranean, sustaining hot, dry conditions across northern Italy and positioning 35°C as the market favorite at 53% implied probability.** Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service and ECMWF show daytime maxima in Milan stabilizing near 34–36°C on August 12, consistent with the ongoing fourth heatwave of summer 2026 that has delivered multiple days above 35°C. Model consensus highlights limited cooling potential due to weak synoptic forcing and high boundary-layer moisture, though slight variations in advection could shift outcomes toward 34°C or 36°C (both at 22%). Historical August climatology (average highs ~28–30°C) underscores the anomaly, with traders weighting the latest short-range model runs heavily ahead of official Milan-Linate observations that will determine resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 12 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Milán el 12 de agosto?
35°C 52%
34°C 23%
36°C 22%
33°C 6%
NUEVO
$17,604 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,604 Vol.
12 ago 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
6%
34°C
23%
35°C
52%
36°C
22%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 52%
34°C 23%
36°C 22%
33°C 6%
NUEVO
$17,604 Vol.
NUEVO
$17,604 Vol.
12 ago 2026
29°C or below
$370 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$437 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$887 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$878 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,759 Vol.
6%
34°C
$2,701 Vol.
23%
35°C
$3,608 Vol.
52%
36°C
$2,443 Vol.
22%
37°C
$1,463 Vol.
2%
38°C
$1,112 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$948 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Mediterranean, sustaining hot, dry conditions across northern Italy and positioning 35°C as the market favorite at 53% implied probability.** Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service and ECMWF show daytime maxima in Milan stabilizing near 34–36°C on August 12, consistent with the ongoing fourth heatwave of summer 2026 that has delivered multiple days above 35°C. Model consensus highlights limited cooling potential due to weak synoptic forcing and high boundary-layer moisture, though slight variations in advection could shift outcomes toward 34°C or 36°C (both at 22%). Historical August climatology (average highs ~28–30°C) underscores the anomaly, with traders weighting the latest short-range model runs heavily ahead of official Milan-Linate observations that will determine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$17,604Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Mediterranean, sustaining hot, dry conditions across northern Italy and positioning 35°C as the market favorite at 53% implied probability.** Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service and ECMWF show daytime maxima in Milan stabilizing near 34–36°C on August 12, consistent with the ongoing fourth heatwave of summer 2026 that has delivered multiple days above 35°C. Model consensus highlights limited cooling potential due to weak synoptic forcing and high boundary-layer moisture, though slight variations in advection could shift outcomes toward 34°C or 36°C (both at 22%). Historical August climatology (average highs ~28–30°C) underscores the anomaly, with traders weighting the latest short-range model runs heavily ahead of official Milan-Linate observations that will determine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$17,604Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on a persistent subtropical high-pressure system over the Mediterranean, sustaining hot, dry conditions across northern Italy and positioning 35°C as the market favorite at 53% implied probability.** Recent observational data and ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service and ECMWF show daytime maxima in Milan stabilizing near 34–36°C on August 12, consistent with the ongoing fourth heatwave of summer 2026 that has delivered multiple days above 35°C. Model consensus highlights limited cooling potential due to weak synoptic forcing and high boundary-layer moisture, though slight variations in advection could shift outcomes toward 34°C or 36°C (both at 22%). Historical August climatology (average highs ~28–30°C) underscores the anomaly, with traders weighting the latest short-range model runs heavily ahead of official Milan-Linate observations that will determine resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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