Forecast models from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate project Chengdu's August 11 high between 34–37°C amid typical summer monsoon humidity and scattered thunderstorms that could limit peak heating through cloud cover or timing of rain. The market's tight spread—36°C at 31.5% leading, followed closely by 35°C and 37°C—reflects this narrow range and genuine short-term uncertainty in steering patterns, precipitation onset, and local basin effects that historically cap extremes below 35°C on many August days. Recent July readings of 37°C and cooler 27°C days underscore variability, while climatological baselines show midsummer highs averaging 30–34°C with rising exceedances above 35°C tied to warming trends. New model runs and official updates in the next 48 hours will likely clarify whether convective activity suppresses or allows the upper end of forecasts.