Forecast models from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate Dallas highs near 100°F on August 9, consistent with recent days of sunny, hot conditions under a persistent subtropical ridge. This places the 100-101°F bin as the market favorite at 47.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 98-99°F, as slight differences in afternoon mixing, wind speed, or localized cloud cover could shift the peak by a degree or two. August climatology shows typical highs of 96-99°F, but the current pattern has sustained readings at or above 100°F, with heat indices enhanced by humidity. Model consensus remains tight, though any late-day convection or stronger boundary-layer mixing introduces modest uncertainty that traders are pricing into the close 98-101°F outcomes.