Short-range ensemble forecasts from major models show a tight cluster of maximum temperatures around 31–34°C for central Paris on July 16, with the 32–33°C range capturing the highest probability density because of modest model spread in boundary-layer heating under a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent upstream observations indicate limited moisture advection and light winds that favor clear-sky insolation without strong diurnal mixing, keeping the daily peak narrowly constrained. Historical July climatology places the 95th-percentile maximum near 30–31°C, so current guidance reflects a modest warm anomaly whose exact magnitude hinges on small differences in cloud cover and 850 hPa temperatures in the final model runs before resolution.