Recent numerical weather prediction models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Poland’s IMGW, converge on a maximum temperature of 23–24°C for Warsaw on August 8 under clearing high-pressure conditions and sunny skies following the August 6 heatwave peak near 33°C. This post-frontal setup features moderate northerly flow and seasonal boundary-layer heating that caps daytime maxima near long-term August averages of 23–25°C. Ensemble spreads and minor model differences sustain the market’s tight clustering, with 23°C at 45.5% reflecting the highest probability density while 22°C and 24°C capture residual uncertainty in afternoon mixing and insolation. No major forecast shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours, keeping the distribution anchored in the low-to-mid 20s.