Recent Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization has anchored trader sentiment for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at end-2026, with the central bank lifting its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25% in September—the highest since 1995—amid upward inflation risks and a persistently weak yen. The 7-2 decision, featuring two dissents, signals a measured pace of further tightening while core inflation hovers near target and fiscal pressures mount from record budget requests. These dynamics have pushed yields to multi-decade highs near 3.0% in early September before a modest pullback to 2.98%, supporting the market-implied 62.3% probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end versus lower ranges. Upcoming data releases and any additional policy signals will influence the terminal path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 6.6%
2.6-2.8% 3.2%
$30,966 Vol.
$30,966 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
62%
3.0%+ 62.3%
2.8-3.0% 17.1%
2.4-2.6% 6.6%
2.6-2.8% 3.2%
$30,966 Vol.
$30,966 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Vol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Vol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Vol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Vol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Vol.
17%
3.0%+
$12,797 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization has anchored trader sentiment for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at end-2026, with the central bank lifting its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25% in September—the highest since 1995—amid upward inflation risks and a persistently weak yen. The 7-2 decision, featuring two dissents, signals a measured pace of further tightening while core inflation hovers near target and fiscal pressures mount from record budget requests. These dynamics have pushed yields to multi-decade highs near 3.0% in early September before a modest pullback to 2.98%, supporting the market-implied 62.3% probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end versus lower ranges. Upcoming data releases and any additional policy signals will influence the terminal path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Mercado abierto: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$30,966Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization has anchored trader sentiment for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at end-2026, with the central bank lifting its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25% in September—the highest since 1995—amid upward inflation risks and a persistently weak yen. The 7-2 decision, featuring two dissents, signals a measured pace of further tightening while core inflation hovers near target and fiscal pressures mount from record budget requests. These dynamics have pushed yields to multi-decade highs near 3.0% in early September before a modest pullback to 2.98%, supporting the market-implied 62.3% probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end versus lower ranges. Upcoming data releases and any additional policy signals will influence the terminal path.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Volumen
$30,966Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan monetary policy normalization has anchored trader sentiment for the Japan 10-year government bond yield at end-2026, with the central bank lifting its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25% in September—the highest since 1995—amid upward inflation risks and a persistently weak yen. The 7-2 decision, featuring two dissents, signals a measured pace of further tightening while core inflation hovers near target and fiscal pressures mount from record budget requests. These dynamics have pushed yields to multi-decade highs near 3.0% in early September before a modest pullback to 2.98%, supporting the market-implied 62.3% probability for a 3.0%+ close by year-end versus lower ranges. Upcoming data releases and any additional policy signals will influence the terminal path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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