Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion amid mixed domestic and external signals. Recent Japan Center for Economic Research surveys revised the Q3 annualized forecast upward to 0.25 percent, supported by firmer business investment and government spending in the prior quarter’s final 1.4 percent print, though private consumption remained flat under cost pressures. Elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments continue to weigh on corporate margins and real household income, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 hike to a 1.25 percent policy rate underscores tightening financial conditions that could further temper demand. These crosscurrents leave the 0.0–0.8 percent and 0.8–1.6 percent bins nearly tied in trader pricing, with outcomes sensitive to incoming industrial production, wage data, and any further yen moves before the November release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.8%–1.6% 34%
0.0%–0.8% 33.4%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
2.4%–3.2% 6.5%
$27,264 Vol.
$27,264 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
21%
0.0%–0.8%
33%
0.8%–1.6%
34%
1.6%–2.4%
6%
2.4%–3.2%
7%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 34%
0.0%–0.8% 33.4%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
2.4%–3.2% 6.5%
$27,264 Vol.
$27,264 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$604 Vol.
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,635 Vol.
21%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,248 Vol.
33%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,829 Vol.
34%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
6%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 Vol.
7%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion amid mixed domestic and external signals. Recent Japan Center for Economic Research surveys revised the Q3 annualized forecast upward to 0.25 percent, supported by firmer business investment and government spending in the prior quarter’s final 1.4 percent print, though private consumption remained flat under cost pressures. Elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments continue to weigh on corporate margins and real household income, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 hike to a 1.25 percent policy rate underscores tightening financial conditions that could further temper demand. These crosscurrents leave the 0.0–0.8 percent and 0.8–1.6 percent bins nearly tied in trader pricing, with outcomes sensitive to incoming industrial production, wage data, and any further yen moves before the November release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volumen
$27,264Fecha de finalización
16 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion amid mixed domestic and external signals. Recent Japan Center for Economic Research surveys revised the Q3 annualized forecast upward to 0.25 percent, supported by firmer business investment and government spending in the prior quarter’s final 1.4 percent print, though private consumption remained flat under cost pressures. Elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments continue to weigh on corporate margins and real household income, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 hike to a 1.25 percent policy rate underscores tightening financial conditions that could further temper demand. These crosscurrents leave the 0.0–0.8 percent and 0.8–1.6 percent bins nearly tied in trader pricing, with outcomes sensitive to incoming industrial production, wage data, and any further yen moves before the November release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$27,264Fecha de finalización
16 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion amid mixed domestic and external signals. Recent Japan Center for Economic Research surveys revised the Q3 annualized forecast upward to 0.25 percent, supported by firmer business investment and government spending in the prior quarter’s final 1.4 percent print, though private consumption remained flat under cost pressures. Elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments continue to weigh on corporate margins and real household income, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 hike to a 1.25 percent policy rate underscores tightening financial conditions that could further temper demand. These crosscurrents leave the 0.0–0.8 percent and 0.8–1.6 percent bins nearly tied in trader pricing, with outcomes sensitive to incoming industrial production, wage data, and any further yen moves before the November release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes