Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, below the prior 1.1% pace, combined with a 0.4% contraction in household consumption, has anchored trader expectations for subdued Q3 performance amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and cooling labor market conditions. High household indebtedness and fading fiscal support are constraining domestic demand, while agriculture and extractive industries provided offsetting strength in recent quarters but remain volatile. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive outcomes, reflecting consensus on decelerating activity consistent with 2026 full-year forecasts near 1.9%, though primary-sector resilience or further monetary easing could shift near-term results.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0.0% a 0.2% 33%
0.3% a 0.5% 23.6%
-0,3% a -0,1% 18%
<-0,3% 8.0%
$12,850 Vol.
$12,850 Vol.
1 dic 2026
<-0,3%
14%
-0,3% a -0,1%
18%
0.0% a 0.2%
33%
0.3% a 0.5%
24%
0,6% a 0,8%
5%
0,9% a 1,1%
5%
≥1,2%
<1%
0.0% a 0.2% 33%
0.3% a 0.5% 23.6%
-0,3% a -0,1% 18%
<-0,3% 8.0%
$12,850 Vol.
$12,850 Vol.
1 dic 2026
<-0,3%
$225 Vol.
14%
-0,3% a -0,1%
$2,248 Vol.
18%
0.0% a 0.2%
$7,807 Vol.
33%
0.3% a 0.5%
$1,920 Vol.
24%
0,6% a 0,8%
$214 Vol.
5%
0,9% a 1,1%
$235 Vol.
5%
≥1,2%
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, below the prior 1.1% pace, combined with a 0.4% contraction in household consumption, has anchored trader expectations for subdued Q3 performance amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and cooling labor market conditions. High household indebtedness and fading fiscal support are constraining domestic demand, while agriculture and extractive industries provided offsetting strength in recent quarters but remain volatile. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive outcomes, reflecting consensus on decelerating activity consistent with 2026 full-year forecasts near 1.9%, though primary-sector resilience or further monetary easing could shift near-term results.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volumen
$12,850Fecha de finalización
2 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, below the prior 1.1% pace, combined with a 0.4% contraction in household consumption, has anchored trader expectations for subdued Q3 performance amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and cooling labor market conditions. High household indebtedness and fading fiscal support are constraining domestic demand, while agriculture and extractive industries provided offsetting strength in recent quarters but remain volatile. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive outcomes, reflecting consensus on decelerating activity consistent with 2026 full-year forecasts near 1.9%, though primary-sector resilience or further monetary easing could shift near-term results.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$12,850Fecha de finalización
2 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, below the prior 1.1% pace, combined with a 0.4% contraction in household consumption, has anchored trader expectations for subdued Q3 performance amid elevated Selic rates near 13.75% and cooling labor market conditions. High household indebtedness and fading fiscal support are constraining domestic demand, while agriculture and extractive industries provided offsetting strength in recent quarters but remain volatile. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive outcomes, reflecting consensus on decelerating activity consistent with 2026 full-year forecasts near 1.9%, though primary-sector resilience or further monetary easing could shift near-term results.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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