Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound of 1.4-1.5% quarter-over-quarter, fueled by transitory FIFA World Cup effects on consumption, services, and construction, has faded, leaving Q3 growth prospects dependent on underlying momentum. Weak private investment, ongoing USMCA review uncertainty, and subdued domestic demand—evident in Q1 contraction and soft labor market—point to a downward correction, with analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 revised lower to 1.0-1.2%. Export resilience tied to U.S. demand provides some offset, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate amid moderating but sticky core inflation (around 3.9%) supports stability. The tight market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% capture this balance of post-World Cup normalization risks versus export-supported resilience ahead of October preliminary data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 10.9%
$25,734 Vol.
$25,734 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
11%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
20%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
3%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 10.9%
$25,734 Vol.
$25,734 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
$474 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Vol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,438 Vol.
11%
1.5-2.0%
$8,548 Vol.
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,918 Vol.
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,133 Vol.
20%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Vol.
1%
3.5%+
$438 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound of 1.4-1.5% quarter-over-quarter, fueled by transitory FIFA World Cup effects on consumption, services, and construction, has faded, leaving Q3 growth prospects dependent on underlying momentum. Weak private investment, ongoing USMCA review uncertainty, and subdued domestic demand—evident in Q1 contraction and soft labor market—point to a downward correction, with analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 revised lower to 1.0-1.2%. Export resilience tied to U.S. demand provides some offset, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate amid moderating but sticky core inflation (around 3.9%) supports stability. The tight market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% capture this balance of post-World Cup normalization risks versus export-supported resilience ahead of October preliminary data.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$25,734Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound of 1.4-1.5% quarter-over-quarter, fueled by transitory FIFA World Cup effects on consumption, services, and construction, has faded, leaving Q3 growth prospects dependent on underlying momentum. Weak private investment, ongoing USMCA review uncertainty, and subdued domestic demand—evident in Q1 contraction and soft labor market—point to a downward correction, with analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 revised lower to 1.0-1.2%. Export resilience tied to U.S. demand provides some offset, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate amid moderating but sticky core inflation (around 3.9%) supports stability. The tight market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% capture this balance of post-World Cup normalization risks versus export-supported resilience ahead of October preliminary data.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,734Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP rebound of 1.4-1.5% quarter-over-quarter, fueled by transitory FIFA World Cup effects on consumption, services, and construction, has faded, leaving Q3 growth prospects dependent on underlying momentum. Weak private investment, ongoing USMCA review uncertainty, and subdued domestic demand—evident in Q1 contraction and soft labor market—point to a downward correction, with analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 revised lower to 1.0-1.2%. Export resilience tied to U.S. demand provides some offset, while Banxico's steady 6.5% policy rate amid moderating but sticky core inflation (around 3.9%) supports stability. The tight market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% capture this balance of post-World Cup normalization risks versus export-supported resilience ahead of October preliminary data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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