Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from a prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near the 1.5–2.5% range, where the two leading bins hold roughly equal 30% implied probabilities. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and fading World Cup-related services activity point to moderation, while resilient exports and nearshoring continue to provide support. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and headline inflation near 3.3% reflect a cautious stance consistent with moderate expansion. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and external demand will likely determine whether growth settles in the 1.5–2.0% or 2.0–2.5% interval ahead of the October 30 official estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2.0-2.5% 31%
1.5-2.0% 30%
1.0-1.5% 12.1%
2.5-3.0% 11%
$25,788 Vol.
$25,788 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
12%
1.5-2.0%
30%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
17%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
<1%
2.0-2.5% 31%
1.5-2.0% 30%
1.0-1.5% 12.1%
2.5-3.0% 11%
$25,788 Vol.
$25,788 Vol.
30 oct 2026
<0.5%
$474 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Vol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,444 Vol.
12%
1.5-2.0%
$8,555 Vol.
30%
2.0-2.5%
$10,918 Vol.
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,173 Vol.
17%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Vol.
1%
3.5%+
$439 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from a prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near the 1.5–2.5% range, where the two leading bins hold roughly equal 30% implied probabilities. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and fading World Cup-related services activity point to moderation, while resilient exports and nearshoring continue to provide support. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and headline inflation near 3.3% reflect a cautious stance consistent with moderate expansion. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and external demand will likely determine whether growth settles in the 1.5–2.0% or 2.0–2.5% interval ahead of the October 30 official estimate.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$25,788Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from a prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near the 1.5–2.5% range, where the two leading bins hold roughly equal 30% implied probabilities. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and fading World Cup-related services activity point to moderation, while resilient exports and nearshoring continue to provide support. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and headline inflation near 3.3% reflect a cautious stance consistent with moderate expansion. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and external demand will likely determine whether growth settles in the 1.5–2.0% or 2.0–2.5% interval ahead of the October 30 official estimate.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,788Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from a prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near the 1.5–2.5% range, where the two leading bins hold roughly equal 30% implied probabilities. Weak domestic demand, subdued private investment amid USMCA review uncertainty, and fading World Cup-related services activity point to moderation, while resilient exports and nearshoring continue to provide support. Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and headline inflation near 3.3% reflect a cautious stance consistent with moderate expansion. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and external demand will likely determine whether growth settles in the 1.5–2.0% or 2.0–2.5% interval ahead of the October 30 official estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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