Recent developments center on an energy price shock tied to Middle East tensions, which has prompted downward revisions to 2026 Euro area GDP forecasts across major institutions to the 0.8-1.1% range. This aligns with trader positioning favoring the 0-1.0% outcome. The ECB responded by raising policy rates 25 basis points in June to 2.25% on the deposit facility, citing upside risks to inflation now projected near 3.0% for the year. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter amid resilient domestic demand and fiscal support in Germany, yet leading indicators and consensus projections signal subdued full-year momentum as higher energy costs weigh on real incomes and confidence. Markets price in these headwinds while noting potential for modest upside if geopolitical pressures ease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0-1,0% 75.5%
1,0-2,0% 19%
<0% 4.0%
4,0-5,0% 2.9%
$30,355 Vol.
$30,355 Vol.
31 ene 2027
<0%
4%
0-1,0%
76%
1,0-2,0%
19%
2,0-3,0%
1%
3,0-4,0%
<1%
4,0-5,0%
3%
5,0-6,0%
<1%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7.0%+
<1%
0-1,0% 75.5%
1,0-2,0% 19%
<0% 4.0%
4,0-5,0% 2.9%
$30,355 Vol.
$30,355 Vol.
31 ene 2027
<0%
$1,672 Vol.
4%
0-1,0%
$11,512 Vol.
76%
1,0-2,0%
$7,131 Vol.
19%
2,0-3,0%
$1,180 Vol.
1%
3,0-4,0%
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0%
$2,203 Vol.
3%
5,0-6,0%
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0%
$2,648 Vol.
<1%
7.0%+
$1,728 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent developments center on an energy price shock tied to Middle East tensions, which has prompted downward revisions to 2026 Euro area GDP forecasts across major institutions to the 0.8-1.1% range. This aligns with trader positioning favoring the 0-1.0% outcome. The ECB responded by raising policy rates 25 basis points in June to 2.25% on the deposit facility, citing upside risks to inflation now projected near 3.0% for the year. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter amid resilient domestic demand and fiscal support in Germany, yet leading indicators and consensus projections signal subdued full-year momentum as higher energy costs weigh on real incomes and confidence. Markets price in these headwinds while noting potential for modest upside if geopolitical pressures ease.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$30,355Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent developments center on an energy price shock tied to Middle East tensions, which has prompted downward revisions to 2026 Euro area GDP forecasts across major institutions to the 0.8-1.1% range. This aligns with trader positioning favoring the 0-1.0% outcome. The ECB responded by raising policy rates 25 basis points in June to 2.25% on the deposit facility, citing upside risks to inflation now projected near 3.0% for the year. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter amid resilient domestic demand and fiscal support in Germany, yet leading indicators and consensus projections signal subdued full-year momentum as higher energy costs weigh on real incomes and confidence. Markets price in these headwinds while noting potential for modest upside if geopolitical pressures ease.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,355Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments center on an energy price shock tied to Middle East tensions, which has prompted downward revisions to 2026 Euro area GDP forecasts across major institutions to the 0.8-1.1% range. This aligns with trader positioning favoring the 0-1.0% outcome. The ECB responded by raising policy rates 25 basis points in June to 2.25% on the deposit facility, citing upside risks to inflation now projected near 3.0% for the year. Q2 GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-over-quarter amid resilient domestic demand and fiscal support in Germany, yet leading indicators and consensus projections signal subdued full-year momentum as higher energy costs weigh on real incomes and confidence. Markets price in these headwinds while noting potential for modest upside if geopolitical pressures ease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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