Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (approximately 2.0% annualized) exceeded forecasts on firmer private consumption and export momentum, yet forward-looking models and analyst surveys now point to a sharp slowdown or outright contraction in Q2 amid rising energy costs from Middle East tensions, a softer yen, and moderating external demand. These crosscurrents have produced tightly clustered market-implied odds across contraction and moderate expansion ranges, reflecting trader assessments of whether domestic wage gains and fiscal support can offset the external drags. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, Bank of Japan communications on policy normalization, and early indicators of business investment and household spending. The August preliminary release will resolve the market, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital expenditure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado-2.4%– -1.6% 89%
<-2.4% 82%
0.0%–0.8% 72%
1.6%–2.4% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 ago 2026
<-2.4%
82%
-2.4%– -1.6%
89%
-1.6%– -0.8%
11%
-0.8%–0.0%
37%
0.0%–0.8%
72%
0.8%–1.6%
26%
1.6%–2.4%
42%
2.4%–3.2%
1%
3.2%–4.0%
41%
4.0%+
-
-2.4%– -1.6% 89%
<-2.4% 82%
0.0%–0.8% 72%
1.6%–2.4% 42%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 ago 2026
<-2.4%
$21 Vol.
82%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$11 Vol.
89%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$16 Vol.
11%
-0.8%–0.0%
$16 Vol.
37%
0.0%–0.8%
$205 Vol.
72%
0.8%–1.6%
$21 Vol.
26%
1.6%–2.4%
$21 Vol.
42%
2.4%–3.2%
$10 Vol.
1%
3.2%–4.0%
$60 Vol.
41%
4.0%+
$5 Vol.
-
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (approximately 2.0% annualized) exceeded forecasts on firmer private consumption and export momentum, yet forward-looking models and analyst surveys now point to a sharp slowdown or outright contraction in Q2 amid rising energy costs from Middle East tensions, a softer yen, and moderating external demand. These crosscurrents have produced tightly clustered market-implied odds across contraction and moderate expansion ranges, reflecting trader assessments of whether domestic wage gains and fiscal support can offset the external drags. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, Bank of Japan communications on policy normalization, and early indicators of business investment and household spending. The August preliminary release will resolve the market, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital expenditure.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volumen
$386Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (approximately 2.0% annualized) exceeded forecasts on firmer private consumption and export momentum, yet forward-looking models and analyst surveys now point to a sharp slowdown or outright contraction in Q2 amid rising energy costs from Middle East tensions, a softer yen, and moderating external demand. These crosscurrents have produced tightly clustered market-implied odds across contraction and moderate expansion ranges, reflecting trader assessments of whether domestic wage gains and fiscal support can offset the external drags. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, Bank of Japan communications on policy normalization, and early indicators of business investment and household spending. The August preliminary release will resolve the market, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital expenditure.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volumen
$386Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (approximately 2.0% annualized) exceeded forecasts on firmer private consumption and export momentum, yet forward-looking models and analyst surveys now point to a sharp slowdown or outright contraction in Q2 amid rising energy costs from Middle East tensions, a softer yen, and moderating external demand. These crosscurrents have produced tightly clustered market-implied odds across contraction and moderate expansion ranges, reflecting trader assessments of whether domestic wage gains and fiscal support can offset the external drags. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, Bank of Japan communications on policy normalization, and early indicators of business investment and household spending. The August preliminary release will resolve the market, with outcomes sensitive to revisions in net exports and capital expenditure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes