Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have elevated input costs and inflation risks, tempering growth expectations for Q2 2026 after a stronger 0.6% Q1 outturn. Flash PMI readings near 48.5 signal stalled momentum, with analysts estimating quarterly expansion near 0.1% or below amid weaker consumer spending and business investment. Market-implied odds clustered between negative and low-positive bands reflect this uncertainty, as traders weigh fiscal support against the energy shock's drag on activity. Bank of England communications and upcoming labor and inflation releases remain key swing factors ahead of the official Q2 GDP print.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0,2–0,3% 69%
0,4–0,5 % 15%
0,0–0,1% 8.6%
Negativo 7.8%
$16,818 Vol.
$16,818 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Negativo
8%
0,0–0,1%
9%
0,2–0,3%
69%
0,4–0,5 %
15%
0,6–0,7%
4%
0,8–0,9%
<1%
1,0%+
1%
0,2–0,3% 69%
0,4–0,5 % 15%
0,0–0,1% 8.6%
Negativo 7.8%
$16,818 Vol.
$16,818 Vol.
12 ago 2026
Negativo
$3,112 Vol.
8%
0,0–0,1%
$991 Vol.
9%
0,2–0,3%
$2,543 Vol.
69%
0,4–0,5 %
$2,738 Vol.
15%
0,6–0,7%
$3,642 Vol.
4%
0,8–0,9%
$3,456 Vol.
<1%
1,0%+
$336 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have elevated input costs and inflation risks, tempering growth expectations for Q2 2026 after a stronger 0.6% Q1 outturn. Flash PMI readings near 48.5 signal stalled momentum, with analysts estimating quarterly expansion near 0.1% or below amid weaker consumer spending and business investment. Market-implied odds clustered between negative and low-positive bands reflect this uncertainty, as traders weigh fiscal support against the energy shock's drag on activity. Bank of England communications and upcoming labor and inflation releases remain key swing factors ahead of the official Q2 GDP print.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$16,818Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have elevated input costs and inflation risks, tempering growth expectations for Q2 2026 after a stronger 0.6% Q1 outturn. Flash PMI readings near 48.5 signal stalled momentum, with analysts estimating quarterly expansion near 0.1% or below amid weaker consumer spending and business investment. Market-implied odds clustered between negative and low-positive bands reflect this uncertainty, as traders weigh fiscal support against the energy shock's drag on activity. Bank of England communications and upcoming labor and inflation releases remain key swing factors ahead of the official Q2 GDP print.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$16,818Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have elevated input costs and inflation risks, tempering growth expectations for Q2 2026 after a stronger 0.6% Q1 outturn. Flash PMI readings near 48.5 signal stalled momentum, with analysts estimating quarterly expansion near 0.1% or below amid weaker consumer spending and business investment. Market-implied odds clustered between negative and low-positive bands reflect this uncertainty, as traders weigh fiscal support against the energy shock's drag on activity. Bank of England communications and upcoming labor and inflation releases remain key swing factors ahead of the official Q2 GDP print.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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