Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a mild overnight period for July 20 in New York City, with minimum temperatures most likely falling between the mid-60s and low-70s amid weak high pressure and light southerly flow. Trader positioning reflects this range, with closely bunched probabilities across 62–72 °F bins driven by modest uncertainty in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and urban heat retention. Ensemble spreads show limited potential for stronger radiational cooling under clear skies or for warmer readings if low-level moisture increases, keeping lower outcomes below 60 °F at low implied odds. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely refine these thresholds before resolution.