Recent April 2026 data showed Mexico's headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year from 4.59% in March, with core inflation declining to 4.26%, supporting trader positioning around the 4.00-4.99% range for full-year 2026 outcomes. Upward revisions to economist forecasts, now centering near 4.37%, reflect persistent food and energy pressures amid global commodity volatility, while the Bank of Mexico's May rate cut to 6.5% signals confidence in gradual disinflation. Labor market stability and peso movements remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly clustered 4.00-4.99% buckets, with incoming CPI releases and Banxico policy signals expected to refine the market-implied path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3.50% a 3.99% 16.2%
5.00% a 5.49% 15.9%
5.50%+ 9%
3.00% a 3.49% 7.1%
$41,235 Vol.
$41,235 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% a 2.99%
<1%
3.00% a 3.49%
7%
3.50% a 3.99%
9%
4.00% a 4.49%
38%
4.50% a 4.99%
43%
5.00% a 5.49%
16%
5.50%+
9%
3.50% a 3.99% 16.2%
5.00% a 5.49% 15.9%
5.50%+ 9%
3.00% a 3.49% 7.1%
$41,235 Vol.
$41,235 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
$494 Vol.
5%
2.50% a 2.99%
$4,130 Vol.
<1%
3.00% a 3.49%
$25,963 Vol.
7%
3.50% a 3.99%
$396 Vol.
9%
4.00% a 4.49%
$503 Vol.
38%
4.50% a 4.99%
$3,538 Vol.
43%
5.00% a 5.49%
$1,191 Vol.
16%
5.50%+
$5,020 Vol.
9%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent April 2026 data showed Mexico's headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year from 4.59% in March, with core inflation declining to 4.26%, supporting trader positioning around the 4.00-4.99% range for full-year 2026 outcomes. Upward revisions to economist forecasts, now centering near 4.37%, reflect persistent food and energy pressures amid global commodity volatility, while the Bank of Mexico's May rate cut to 6.5% signals confidence in gradual disinflation. Labor market stability and peso movements remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly clustered 4.00-4.99% buckets, with incoming CPI releases and Banxico policy signals expected to refine the market-implied path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$41,235Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent April 2026 data showed Mexico's headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year from 4.59% in March, with core inflation declining to 4.26%, supporting trader positioning around the 4.00-4.99% range for full-year 2026 outcomes. Upward revisions to economist forecasts, now centering near 4.37%, reflect persistent food and energy pressures amid global commodity volatility, while the Bank of Mexico's May rate cut to 6.5% signals confidence in gradual disinflation. Labor market stability and peso movements remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly clustered 4.00-4.99% buckets, with incoming CPI releases and Banxico policy signals expected to refine the market-implied path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$41,235Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 data showed Mexico's headline inflation easing to 4.45% year-over-year from 4.59% in March, with core inflation declining to 4.26%, supporting trader positioning around the 4.00-4.99% range for full-year 2026 outcomes. Upward revisions to economist forecasts, now centering near 4.37%, reflect persistent food and energy pressures amid global commodity volatility, while the Bank of Mexico's May rate cut to 6.5% signals confidence in gradual disinflation. Labor market stability and peso movements remain key swing factors that could shift probabilities within the tightly clustered 4.00-4.99% buckets, with incoming CPI releases and Banxico policy signals expected to refine the market-implied path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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