Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and architectural gains like Kimi Delta Attention—drove recent trader focus on the next Kimi K release. The model achieved frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks, topping Arena's Frontend Code leaderboard and ranking close to Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol overall while undercutting premium US pricing. Its open weights followed on July 27 under a custom license, amplifying developer adoption and competitive pressure on other Chinese labs. No official timeline exists for a successor as of early September 2026, though Moonshot's prior cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 in June, K3 in July) and rivals' expected updates suggest potential movement soon. Traders weigh these factors against typical scaling timelines and hardware constraints when assessing implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$14,942 Vol.
15 sep 2026
15 de septiembre de 2026
4%
30 de septiembre de 2026
90%
31 de diciembre de 2026
99%
$14,942 Vol.
15 de septiembre de 2026
$1,471 Vol.
4%
30 de septiembre de 2026
$9,356 Vol.
90%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$2,188 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and architectural gains like Kimi Delta Attention—drove recent trader focus on the next Kimi K release. The model achieved frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks, topping Arena's Frontend Code leaderboard and ranking close to Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol overall while undercutting premium US pricing. Its open weights followed on July 27 under a custom license, amplifying developer adoption and competitive pressure on other Chinese labs. No official timeline exists for a successor as of early September 2026, though Moonshot's prior cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 in June, K3 in July) and rivals' expected updates suggest potential movement soon. Traders weigh these factors against typical scaling timelines and hardware constraints when assessing implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volumen
$14,942Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and architectural gains like Kimi Delta Attention—drove recent trader focus on the next Kimi K release. The model achieved frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks, topping Arena's Frontend Code leaderboard and ranking close to Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol overall while undercutting premium US pricing. Its open weights followed on July 27 under a custom license, amplifying developer adoption and competitive pressure on other Chinese labs. No official timeline exists for a successor as of early September 2026, though Moonshot's prior cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 in June, K3 in July) and rivals' expected updates suggest potential movement soon. Traders weigh these factors against typical scaling timelines and hardware constraints when assessing implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model refers to any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family (e.g., Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4). The release of any new model within the Kimi K family will qualify.
Products labeled as Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$14,942Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE model with native vision, a 1-million-token context window, and architectural gains like Kimi Delta Attention—drove recent trader focus on the next Kimi K release. The model achieved frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks, topping Arena's Frontend Code leaderboard and ranking close to Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol overall while undercutting premium US pricing. Its open weights followed on July 27 under a custom license, amplifying developer adoption and competitive pressure on other Chinese labs. No official timeline exists for a successor as of early September 2026, though Moonshot's prior cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 in June, K3 in July) and rivals' expected updates suggest potential movement soon. Traders weigh these factors against typical scaling timelines and hardware constraints when assessing implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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