Giorgia Meloni leads trader expectations for Italy’s next prime minister due to her incumbency as head of the longest-serving post-war government, which reached that milestone in early September 2026, and her explicit September 16 statement committing to serve until the legislature ends in autumn 2027. Recent Senate approval of an electoral reform introducing a majority bonus above 42 percent aims to bolster coalition stability ahead of the vote due no later than December 2027, though internal coalition frictions persist. A rising far-right challenger, Roberto Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale, has drawn support from the governing bloc in recent polls, narrowing the centre-right’s edge over the centre-left “campo largo” alliance and raising questions about future coalition cohesion. Opposition figures Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement remain the primary alternatives if the contest tightens, while Vannacci’s momentum positions him as a potential disruptor within the broader right.