Carlos Prates holds a dominant 90% implied probability as Islam Makhachev’s next welterweight title opponent because the champion explicitly named him the most deserving contender after defending his belt against Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330. Prates earned that positioning through recent knockouts of former champions Leon Edwards and Jack Della Maddalena, combined with consistent activity and public calls for the matchup ahead of Ramadan in early 2027. Makhachev has targeted a return in late 2026 or January to fit his schedule, and Prates’ striking power and reach create a clear stylistic test. Other ranked welterweights such as Michael Morales remain in contention but trail due to less recent high-profile activity. Late injuries, a shift in Makhachev’s preference, or an intervening contender bout could still alter the timeline.