The U.S. banking sector’s historically high regulatory capital ratios and strong liquidity buffers underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds against a failure by May 31. The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted resilient balance sheets, with uninsured deposit reliance well below 2023 peaks and aggregate capital levels comfortably above regulatory minimums. Two small-bank resolutions earlier this year remained isolated events without contagion effects. Absent major earnings surprises or acute commercial-real-estate stress in the next two weeks, traders see little scope for rapid deterioration. A sudden spike in problem-loan charge-offs or unexpected funding-market dislocation could still shift the balance, though current conditions render such outcomes low-probability.