Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,001,299 Vol.
$9,001,299 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
91%
8%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
ByteDance <1%
$9,001,299 Vol.
$9,001,299 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
$675,352 Vol.
91%
$621,235 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$766,811 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$558,510 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$527,459 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$588,837 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$671,949 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$562,995 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$478,923 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$406,756 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,423,820 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$418,351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$9,001,299Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$9,001,299Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 90% implied probability in the market for the best AI model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance of its latest Claude Opus 4.7 and related variants across key benchmarks for coding, reasoning, and natural language generation. Traders appear to favor Anthropic’s emphasis on reliable, low-hallucination outputs and strong results on developer-focused evaluations, which have solidified its position relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini 3.1 family trails at 7.5% thanks to multimodal strengths, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-5.5 release has not shifted sentiment enough to close the gap. With resolution just weeks away and no major new model launches expected before month-end, current trader positioning reflects sustained benchmark leadership and practical adoption advantages for frontier large language models.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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