Recent U.S. naval deployments under Operation Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early May amid renewed skirmishes with Iranian forces, have emerged as the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential warship transits by May 31. The strait handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, so persistent blockades and reduced vessel traffic have elevated tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility as markets price in supply disruption risks. India’s ongoing escort operations add to the mix of state naval activity, while diplomatic talks on sanctions relief and ceasefires introduce swing factors that could either de-escalate or prompt additional allied deployments before the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$1,010,695 Vol.
31 may 2026
United Kingdom
3%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
1%
Qatar
1%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
1%
South Korea
1%
Australia
<1%
$1,010,695 Vol.
United Kingdom
$162,951 Vol.
3%
France
$96,016 Vol.
4%
Germany
$166,771 Vol.
1%
Italy
$74,400 Vol.
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 Vol.
1%
Japan
$112,820 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$19,730 Vol.
<1%
India
$7,441 Vol.
2%
Greece
$18,417 Vol.
1%
Pakistan
$11,940 Vol.
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 Vol.
2%
UAE
$4,426 Vol.
5%
Bahrain
$19,791 Vol.
1%
Qatar
$5,816 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$3,325 Vol.
2%
Oman
$4,506 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$83,281 Vol.
1%
Australia
$72,142 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent U.S. naval deployments under Operation Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early May amid renewed skirmishes with Iranian forces, have emerged as the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential warship transits by May 31. The strait handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, so persistent blockades and reduced vessel traffic have elevated tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility as markets price in supply disruption risks. India’s ongoing escort operations add to the mix of state naval activity, while diplomatic talks on sanctions relief and ceasefires introduce swing factors that could either de-escalate or prompt additional allied deployments before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$1,010,695Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent U.S. naval deployments under Operation Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early May amid renewed skirmishes with Iranian forces, have emerged as the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential warship transits by May 31. The strait handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, so persistent blockades and reduced vessel traffic have elevated tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility as markets price in supply disruption risks. India’s ongoing escort operations add to the mix of state naval activity, while diplomatic talks on sanctions relief and ceasefires introduce swing factors that could either de-escalate or prompt additional allied deployments before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$1,010,695Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. naval deployments under Operation Project Freedom, including guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz since early May amid renewed skirmishes with Iranian forces, have emerged as the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential warship transits by May 31. The strait handles roughly 20 percent of global oil trade, so persistent blockades and reduced vessel traffic have elevated tanker rates, marine insurance premiums, and Brent crude volatility as markets price in supply disruption risks. India’s ongoing escort operations add to the mix of state naval activity, while diplomatic talks on sanctions relief and ceasefires introduce swing factors that could either de-escalate or prompt additional allied deployments before the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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