SpaceX's accelerated path to a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, with public S-1 filing expected imminently and a roadshow starting early next month, has solidified trader consensus around its 99.3% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI. The company has moved swiftly from confidential SEC filings in April to targeting a record valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion, supported by strong revenue growth in Starlink and reusable launch operations. In contrast, OpenAI remains in preliminary discussions for a potential fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 debut at up to $1 trillion, hampered by ongoing profitability timelines and structural considerations. While regulatory reviews or market volatility could introduce minor delays, SpaceX's concrete execution timeline and advanced preparation create a decisive edge in this outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSpaceX
$73,403 Vol.
$73,403 Vol.
31 dic 2027
SpaceX
$73,403 Vol.
$73,403 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's accelerated path to a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, with public S-1 filing expected imminently and a roadshow starting early next month, has solidified trader consensus around its 99.3% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI. The company has moved swiftly from confidential SEC filings in April to targeting a record valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion, supported by strong revenue growth in Starlink and reusable launch operations. In contrast, OpenAI remains in preliminary discussions for a potential fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 debut at up to $1 trillion, hampered by ongoing profitability timelines and structural considerations. While regulatory reviews or market volatility could introduce minor delays, SpaceX's concrete execution timeline and advanced preparation create a decisive edge in this outcome.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volumen
$73,403Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's accelerated path to a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, with public S-1 filing expected imminently and a roadshow starting early next month, has solidified trader consensus around its 99.3% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI. The company has moved swiftly from confidential SEC filings in April to targeting a record valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion, supported by strong revenue growth in Starlink and reusable launch operations. In contrast, OpenAI remains in preliminary discussions for a potential fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 debut at up to $1 trillion, hampered by ongoing profitability timelines and structural considerations. While regulatory reviews or market volatility could introduce minor delays, SpaceX's concrete execution timeline and advanced preparation create a decisive edge in this outcome.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$73,403Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's accelerated path to a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, with public S-1 filing expected imminently and a roadshow starting early next month, has solidified trader consensus around its 99.3% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI. The company has moved swiftly from confidential SEC filings in April to targeting a record valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion, supported by strong revenue growth in Starlink and reusable launch operations. In contrast, OpenAI remains in preliminary discussions for a potential fourth-quarter 2026 or 2027 debut at up to $1 trillion, hampered by ongoing profitability timelines and structural considerations. While regulatory reviews or market volatility could introduce minor delays, SpaceX's concrete execution timeline and advanced preparation create a decisive edge in this outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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