Tesla's regulatory position in California remains the dominant factor behind the market's strong preference for no launch by June 30. The company holds only a basic supervised-testing permit and has accumulated zero autonomous miles on public roads in the state over six years, falling far short of the 50,000-mile demonstration threshold required for driverless deployment under DMV rules adopted in April. Recent confirmation from the CPUC that Tesla's current service operates as a standard Level 2 chauffeur operation rather than a true robotaxi further underscores the gap. With new enforcement measures taking effect July 1 and no pending applications for commercial autonomous permits, traders see insufficient time for approvals, testing milestones, or operational scaling before the deadline.