Ongoing conflict since February 2026, including U.S. naval actions and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has sharply curtailed Iran's oil exports and triggered sustained rial depreciation amid elevated inflation and sanctions. These pressures have pushed free-market USD/IRR rates above 1.3 million in recent weeks, with the currency hitting record lows near 1.8 million at times due to supply disruptions and domestic economic contraction. Traders assess near-term movement by tracking any shifts in oil prices, potential diplomatic de-escalation, or further sanctions enforcement, as these factors directly influence capital outflows and import costs through the resolution window. Historical patterns of rapid rial weakening during similar geopolitical shocks support expectations of continued pressure absent major policy reversals before month-end.