Kimi Antonelli holds a commanding 81-point lead in the 2026 Drivers’ Championship with 292 points after eight victories, including recent wins at the Italian and Spanish Grands Prix, reflecting Mercedes’ strong adaptation to the new technical regulations and his consistent front-running pace. Traders assign him a 92.8% implied probability as the heavy favorite due to this margin over teammate George Russell and the rest of the field. Potential shifts remain possible through mechanical reliability problems, unforced errors in the remaining rounds starting with Azerbaijan, or an extended surge from rivals like Russell or Lando Norris, though the gap makes such scenarios statistically demanding.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKimi Antonelli 92.8%
Lando Norris 2.9%
George Russell 2.6%
Lewis Hamilton <1%
$203,137,298 Vol.
$203,137,298 Vol.
Dec 5, 2026
Kimi Antonelli
93%
Lando Norris
3%
George Russell
3%
Lewis Hamilton
1%
Charles Leclerc
<1%
Max Verstappen
<1%
Oscar Piastri
<1%
Isack Hadjar
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
Kimi Antonelli 92.8%
Lando Norris 2.9%
George Russell 2.6%
Lewis Hamilton <1%
$203,137,298 Vol.
$203,137,298 Vol.
Dec 5, 2026
Kimi Antonelli
$4,421,570 Vol.
93%
Lando Norris
$6,848,154 Vol.
3%
George Russell
$2,787,012 Vol.
3%
Lewis Hamilton
$5,471,153 Vol.
1%
Charles Leclerc
$5,361,571 Vol.
<1%
Max Verstappen
$6,195,362 Vol.
<1%
Oscar Piastri
$6,498,608 Vol.
<1%
Isack Hadjar
$9,378,008 Vol.
<1%
Liam Lawson
$10,726,111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.Kimi Antonelli holds a commanding 81-point lead in the 2026 Drivers’ Championship with 292 points after eight victories, including recent wins at the Italian and Spanish Grands Prix, reflecting Mercedes’ strong adaptation to the new technical regulations and his consistent front-running pace. Traders assign him a 92.8% implied probability as the heavy favorite due to this margin over teammate George Russell and the rest of the field. Potential shifts remain possible through mechanical reliability problems, unforced errors in the remaining rounds starting with Azerbaijan, or an extended surge from rivals like Russell or Lando Norris, though the gap makes such scenarios statistically demanding.
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ET
Volume
$203,137,298End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.Kimi Antonelli holds a commanding 81-point lead in the 2026 Drivers’ Championship with 292 points after eight victories, including recent wins at the Italian and Spanish Grands Prix, reflecting Mercedes’ strong adaptation to the new technical regulations and his consistent front-running pace. Traders assign him a 92.8% implied probability as the heavy favorite due to this margin over teammate George Russell and the rest of the field. Potential shifts remain possible through mechanical reliability problems, unforced errors in the remaining rounds starting with Azerbaijan, or an extended surge from rivals like Russell or Lando Norris, though the gap makes such scenarios statistically demanding.
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Volume
$203,137,298End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kimi Antonelli holds a commanding 81-point lead in the 2026 Drivers’ Championship with 292 points after eight victories, including recent wins at the Italian and Spanish Grands Prix, reflecting Mercedes’ strong adaptation to the new technical regulations and his consistent front-running pace. Traders assign him a 92.8% implied probability as the heavy favorite due to this margin over teammate George Russell and the rest of the field. Potential shifts remain possible through mechanical reliability problems, unforced errors in the remaining rounds starting with Azerbaijan, or an extended surge from rivals like Russell or Lando Norris, though the gap makes such scenarios statistically demanding.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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