Jannik Sinner leads trader consensus at roughly 50% implied probability due to his status as world No. 1, a 55-5 record over the prior year, and recent Wimbledon triumph that marked his fifth major title. Alexander Zverev sits next at 13% after capturing the 2026 French Open, bolstering his hard-court credentials as a 2020 US Open finalist. Carlos Alcaraz trails at 12.5% despite his 2025 title defense, with limited match play since a spring wrist injury and recent withdrawals from the Canadian and Cincinnati Opens raising questions about fitness and preparation. Novak Djokovic and younger contenders like Ben Shelton follow further back, reflecting age-related factors for the former and less consistent Slam results for the latter amid Sinner’s dominance on fast surfaces. Recent injury management and schedule decisions among the top three have reinforced these relative probabilities heading into the late-August hard-court major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJannik Sinner 51%
Alexander Zverev 13.2%
Carlos Alcaraz 13%
Novak Djokovic 6.7%
$6,485,518 Vol.
$6,485,518 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
51%
Alexander Zverev
13%
Carlos Alcaraz
13%
Novak Djokovic
7%
Ben Shelton
5%
Taylor Fritz
3%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Arthur Fils
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Flavio Cobolli
1%
Frances Tiafoe
1%
Jiri Lehecka
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
Jannik Sinner 51%
Alexander Zverev 13.2%
Carlos Alcaraz 13%
Novak Djokovic 6.7%
$6,485,518 Vol.
$6,485,518 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
51%
Alexander Zverev
13%
Carlos Alcaraz
13%
Novak Djokovic
7%
Ben Shelton
5%
Taylor Fritz
3%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Arthur Fils
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Lorenzo Musetti
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Flavio Cobolli
1%
Frances Tiafoe
1%
Jiri Lehecka
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jannik Sinner leads trader consensus at roughly 50% implied probability due to his status as world No. 1, a 55-5 record over the prior year, and recent Wimbledon triumph that marked his fifth major title. Alexander Zverev sits next at 13% after capturing the 2026 French Open, bolstering his hard-court credentials as a 2020 US Open finalist. Carlos Alcaraz trails at 12.5% despite his 2025 title defense, with limited match play since a spring wrist injury and recent withdrawals from the Canadian and Cincinnati Opens raising questions about fitness and preparation. Novak Djokovic and younger contenders like Ben Shelton follow further back, reflecting age-related factors for the former and less consistent Slam results for the latter amid Sinner’s dominance on fast surfaces. Recent injury management and schedule decisions among the top three have reinforced these relative probabilities heading into the late-August hard-court major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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