Jannik Sinner commands the highest implied probability for the 2026 US Open title at 59 percent, driven by his status as world No. 1, a recent Wimbledon victory, and a dominant 2026 campaign featuring multiple Masters 1000 hard-court titles plus an elite win rate on the surface. Carlos Alcaraz sits at 10.5 percent as defending champion but faces reduced expectations after a prolonged wrist injury absence since April, with only cautious practice reported ahead of his potential return. Alexander Zverev at 9.8 percent benefits from his Roland Garros breakthrough, while Novak Djokovic and others trail amid questions of sustained form on New York hard courts. The market reflects Sinner’s consistent edge in recent head-to-heads and scheduling advantages heading into the late-August hard-court major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJannik Sinner 59%
Carlos Alcaraz 11%
Alexander Zverev 9.8%
Novak Djokovic 4.7%
$5,154,311 Vol.
$5,154,311 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
59%
Carlos Alcaraz
11%
Alexander Zverev
10%
Novak Djokovic
5%
Taylor Fritz
2%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Ben Shelton
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Flavio Cobolli
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Arthur Fils
1%
Jiri Lehecka
<1%
Lorenzo Musetti
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Frances Tiafoe
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
Jannik Sinner 59%
Carlos Alcaraz 11%
Alexander Zverev 9.8%
Novak Djokovic 4.7%
$5,154,311 Vol.
$5,154,311 Vol.
Jannik Sinner
59%
Carlos Alcaraz
11%
Alexander Zverev
10%
Novak Djokovic
5%
Taylor Fritz
2%
Daniil Medvedev
2%
Ben Shelton
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Alexander Bublik
1%
Flavio Cobolli
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Arthur Fils
1%
Jiri Lehecka
<1%
Lorenzo Musetti
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Frances Tiafoe
<1%
Jack Draper
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Holger Rune
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jannik Sinner commands the highest implied probability for the 2026 US Open title at 59 percent, driven by his status as world No. 1, a recent Wimbledon victory, and a dominant 2026 campaign featuring multiple Masters 1000 hard-court titles plus an elite win rate on the surface. Carlos Alcaraz sits at 10.5 percent as defending champion but faces reduced expectations after a prolonged wrist injury absence since April, with only cautious practice reported ahead of his potential return. Alexander Zverev at 9.8 percent benefits from his Roland Garros breakthrough, while Novak Djokovic and others trail amid questions of sustained form on New York hard courts. The market reflects Sinner’s consistent edge in recent head-to-heads and scheduling advantages heading into the late-August hard-court major.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions