Trader consensus at 97% for “No” reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events, which require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on locked subduction-zone segments and have occurred globally only a handful of times since 1900. USGS data show the most recent confirmed example was the 2011 Tōhoku event, with 2025’s Kamchatka quake reaching only 8.8 and 2026 activity limited to several 7.8-class shocks. With roughly three months remaining, the base rate and lack of anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences in key zones such as Cascadia, Chile, or the Aleutians strongly support current odds. A rapid, multi-segment failure on a high-slip-rate interface remains the only realistic pathway that could alter the outcome before year-end.