Recent polling in Acre shows a fragmented field for the October 4 Senate contest, with Gladson Cameli (PP) and Marcio Bittar (PL) holding the highest consolidated support near 24% and 21%, respectively, while Mara Rocha (Republicanos) and Jorge Viana (PT) trail in the mid-teens. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability of finishing first to Rocha, followed closely by Bittar and Cameli, consistent with these surveys after adjustment for Cameli’s candidacy registration, which the state electoral court rejected on September 22 with an appeal pending. The race remains tight because voters select two senators, support is dispersed across eight registered candidates, and no one commands a dominant share. A favorable higher-court ruling for Cameli or stronger late momentum from any contender could shift first-place probabilities before election day.