Senegal enters the AFCON 2027 qualifier as the clear favorite due to its deeper squad, greater international experience, and stronger recent results at major tournaments, reflected in the 64.5% implied probability for a win. The Lions of Teranga, now under new coach Patrick Vieira, opened their Group J campaign with a 1-1 draw against Mozambique that featured a goal from Nicolas Jackson, while Ethiopia fell 0-1 to Sudan in its opener. Ethiopia has shown limited attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities in qualifiers, making an upset unlikely despite home support at Bahir Dar Stadium. No significant injuries or lineup changes have altered the mismatch, supporting the 25% draw and 12.5% Ethiopia win probabilities.