Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data show roughly 46% of the contiguous United States in moderate or worse drought as of early October 2026, with 55–58% of national hay production located in D1+ areas according to USDA tracking. Variable late-summer and early-fall precipitation has produced mixed regional signals: heavy rains from storm remnants improved conditions across parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast, while persistent deficits remain in key hay states including Montana, Idaho, Texas, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Soil moisture, evapotranspiration rates, and temperature anomalies in major producing regions will determine whether the percentage for the week of October 13 edges above or below recent levels. Forecasters note that additional rainfall or continued dryness through mid-October could shift the distribution across the evenly balanced market bins.