Recent polling from Paraná Pesquisas, conducted September 18–20, places Arthur Lira (PP) at 41.2%, Marina JHC (PSDB) at 37.8%, and incumbent Renan Calheiros (MDB) at 34.6% in Alagoas’s two-seat Senate contest, all within the 2.7-point margin of error and consistent with the market’s narrow spread among top contenders. Lira and Marina JHC share the Alagoas Gigante II coalition, leveraging Lira’s congressional profile and local alliances to challenge the Calheiros family’s long-standing influence, while Renan Calheiros seeks a fifth term alongside Dr. Wanderley. Earlier 2026 surveys showed more volatility, including shifts after candidate adjustments such as Alfredo Gaspar’s withdrawal. The September 23 request by Lira and gubernatorial candidate JHC for federal troops to monitor polling sites underscores ongoing tensions over state resources. With voting set for October 4, the first-place outcome remains sensitive to turnout patterns and any final campaign developments.