Recent polling shows Arthur Lira leading the Alagoas Senate race, with Marina JHC and Renan Calheiros in a tight contest for the second seat ahead of the October 4 vote. Marina’s rise stems from her alliance with Lira and her husband JHC’s gubernatorial bid under the Alagoas Gigante II coalition, which consolidates support from multiple parties and erodes the Calheiros family’s long-standing position. Renan’s higher rejection ratings and slower momentum have contributed to his slippage. Traders price Marina highest for second place because the combined Lira-Maria ticket benefits from shared campaign infrastructure and voter crossover in key demographics, though Davi Davino Filho and others remain factors that could shift the final ordering if undecided voters break differently.