Alaska voters will decide Ballot Measure 3 on November 3, 2026, which would amend state statute to state explicitly that only U.S. citizens may vote in any election. The measure qualifies for the ballot after sponsors gathered sufficient signatures and faces no organized opposition campaign. Noncitizen voting is already prohibited under existing law, making the initiative largely a clarification of voter qualifications rather than a substantive policy shift. Similar citizenship-requirement measures appear on ballots in other states this cycle, reflecting broader election-integrity priorities among supporters. Trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability for passage aligns with the measure’s straightforward wording, lack of counter-campaign, and alignment with prevailing voter sentiment on citizenship rules in state elections.