Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former mayor of Macapá, holds a clear lead in Amapá’s October 4, 2026, gubernatorial race according to recent polling, including a Quaest survey showing 53% support against incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) at 40%. Traders price this outcome highest because multiple surveys since July have shown Furlan ahead by double digits in both spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, with minor candidates such as Jairo Palheta and Carlos Cley registering near 1%. Campaign activity, including Furlan’s recent events in Oiapoque and Macapá, and the short time remaining before the first round reinforce the current market positioning, though late shifts in voter preference or turnout could still affect the final result.