Rayssa Furlan (Podemos) leads recent polling for Amapá’s October 4, 2026, Senate contest, with a September 24 Quaest survey placing her at 28% in the stimulated scenario and 40% for the top spot, ahead of Randolfe Rodrigues (PT) at 20% and incumbent Lucas Barreto (PSD) at 19%. Each voter selects two candidates for the state’s two seats, amplifying the value of her consistent first-place positioning across multiple surveys since mid-2026. Incumbents seeking reelection trail amid a fragmented field of nine registered contenders, while lower-polling names such as Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho remain distant. Traders have priced Furlan’s frontrunner status at 82.5% implied probability for first place, reflecting the latest poll-driven momentum and limited time before ballots close.