Recent Quaest polling released September 24 shows Rayssa Furlan leading consolidated intentions for the two Amapá Senate seats at 28%, followed closely by Randolfe Rodrigues at 20% and Lucas Barreto at 19%, with Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho further back. In the simulated second-vote breakdown, Barreto edges ahead at 26% while Furlan and Randolfe sit near 15-17%. The contest for second place remains tight because voters select two senators and the field beyond the frontrunner is fragmented within margins of error, with no single challenger consolidating support. A debate scheduled for September 25 among the top six contenders, plus ongoing coalition dynamics in the Juntos por Todo o Amapá alliance supporting Randolfe, could shift second-preference flows before the October 4 first round.