Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been revised upward twice amid surging AI infrastructure demand, moving from an initial $200 billion target set in February 2026—roughly 50% above the $131.8 billion spent in 2025—to $220 billion following the Q2 earnings release in late July, driven by higher memory chip costs and accelerated AWS data center builds. This trajectory reflects strong cloud revenue growth, including 24% AWS expansion in Q4 2025, alongside broader hyperscaler trends pushing combined big-tech capex toward $725 billion. Traders price in continued upside risk from persistent AI tailwinds and input cost inflation, tempered by free cash flow compression and potential normalization in component pricing, with Q3 results and ongoing supply-chain data as key near-term catalysts shaping implied probabilities around specific thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,687 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
$170 billion
93%
$180 billion
94%
$190 billion
97%
$200 billion
83%
$210 billion
70%
$220 billion
66%
$19,687 Vol.
$170 billion
$761 Vol.
93%
$180 billion
$6,052 Vol.
94%
$190 billion
$5,193 Vol.
97%
$200 billion
$4,164 Vol.
83%
$210 billion
$1,384 Vol.
70%
$220 billion
$2,132 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been revised upward twice amid surging AI infrastructure demand, moving from an initial $200 billion target set in February 2026—roughly 50% above the $131.8 billion spent in 2025—to $220 billion following the Q2 earnings release in late July, driven by higher memory chip costs and accelerated AWS data center builds. This trajectory reflects strong cloud revenue growth, including 24% AWS expansion in Q4 2025, alongside broader hyperscaler trends pushing combined big-tech capex toward $725 billion. Traders price in continued upside risk from persistent AI tailwinds and input cost inflation, tempered by free cash flow compression and potential normalization in component pricing, with Q3 results and ongoing supply-chain data as key near-term catalysts shaping implied probabilities around specific thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$19,687End Date
Apr 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been revised upward twice amid surging AI infrastructure demand, moving from an initial $200 billion target set in February 2026—roughly 50% above the $131.8 billion spent in 2025—to $220 billion following the Q2 earnings release in late July, driven by higher memory chip costs and accelerated AWS data center builds. This trajectory reflects strong cloud revenue growth, including 24% AWS expansion in Q4 2025, alongside broader hyperscaler trends pushing combined big-tech capex toward $725 billion. Traders price in continued upside risk from persistent AI tailwinds and input cost inflation, tempered by free cash flow compression and potential normalization in component pricing, with Q3 results and ongoing supply-chain data as key near-term catalysts shaping implied probabilities around specific thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
Volume
$19,687End Date
Apr 30, 2027Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been revised upward twice amid surging AI infrastructure demand, moving from an initial $200 billion target set in February 2026—roughly 50% above the $131.8 billion spent in 2025—to $220 billion following the Q2 earnings release in late July, driven by higher memory chip costs and accelerated AWS data center builds. This trajectory reflects strong cloud revenue growth, including 24% AWS expansion in Q4 2025, alongside broader hyperscaler trends pushing combined big-tech capex toward $725 billion. Traders price in continued upside risk from persistent AI tailwinds and input cost inflation, tempered by free cash flow compression and potential normalization in component pricing, with Q3 results and ongoing supply-chain data as key near-term catalysts shaping implied probabilities around specific thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions