Arizona voters will decide Proposition 318 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred measure that would require schools and athletic associations to designate teams and private facilities such as restrooms, locker rooms, and showers according to biological sex recorded at birth. Republican majorities advanced the proposal through both chambers earlier this year, expanding the 2022 sports participation statute to cover private entities while adding facility access rules. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state bans removed prior federal court obstacles in Arizona, and a subsequent lawsuit challenging the measure’s placement on the ballot was dismissed. These steps, combined with the closely divided electorate on related cultural issues, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 62.5% implied probability for passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated57% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
57% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona voters will decide Proposition 318 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred measure that would require schools and athletic associations to designate teams and private facilities such as restrooms, locker rooms, and showers according to biological sex recorded at birth. Republican majorities advanced the proposal through both chambers earlier this year, expanding the 2022 sports participation statute to cover private entities while adding facility access rules. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state bans removed prior federal court obstacles in Arizona, and a subsequent lawsuit challenging the measure’s placement on the ballot was dismissed. These steps, combined with the closely divided electorate on related cultural issues, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 62.5% implied probability for passage.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$182End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona voters will decide Proposition 318 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred measure that would require schools and athletic associations to designate teams and private facilities such as restrooms, locker rooms, and showers according to biological sex recorded at birth. Republican majorities advanced the proposal through both chambers earlier this year, expanding the 2022 sports participation statute to cover private entities while adding facility access rules. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state bans removed prior federal court obstacles in Arizona, and a subsequent lawsuit challenging the measure’s placement on the ballot was dismissed. These steps, combined with the closely divided electorate on related cultural issues, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 62.5% implied probability for passage.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Volume
$182End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Arizona voters will decide Proposition 318 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred measure that would require schools and athletic associations to designate teams and private facilities such as restrooms, locker rooms, and showers according to biological sex recorded at birth. Republican majorities advanced the proposal through both chambers earlier this year, expanding the 2022 sports participation statute to cover private entities while adding facility access rules. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state bans removed prior federal court obstacles in Arizona, and a subsequent lawsuit challenging the measure’s placement on the ballot was dismissed. These steps, combined with the closely divided electorate on related cultural issues, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 62.5% implied probability for passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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