Arkansas Issue 1, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment, appears on the November 3, 2026 ballot to explicitly state that only U.S. citizens meeting elector qualifications may vote in state or local elections. Arkansas law already restricts voting to citizens, but sponsors frame the measure as a preemptive clarification to block any future municipal expansions of noncitizen voting rights seen elsewhere. The closely balanced 50% implied probability reflects the absence of public polling, limited organized opposition, and the measure's largely symbolic character given existing statutes. Key variables that could shift trader assessments include late-cycle polling on turnout among core voter blocs, campaign spending by legislative backers, or national developments on immigration and election administration that heighten salience before Election Day.