Houthi forces completed their takeover of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and Perim Island in September 2026, granting them the ability to threaten or deter transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without a formal blockade. Recent escalations include Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked shipping in July–August 2026 and renewed missile/drone activity in early November, prompting Saudi intercepts and reduced Saudi crude loadings via Yanbu. Container traffic rebounded in October, reaching roughly 68% of pre-crisis volumes with overall transits at about 79% of year-earlier levels, while tankers and other sectors show slower recovery amid persistent high-risk warnings. No international authority has declared the strait closed, though carriers continue cautious routing decisions and naval escorts persist. Upcoming carrier network adjustments and any further Houthi actions or diplomatic responses could shift transit volumes and implied probabilities.