Houthi forces seized Yemen’s full Red Sea coastline, including the port of Mokha, Perim Island, and the Hanish Islands in mid-September 2026, establishing direct leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the broader 2026 Iran conflict spillover. This territorial control, combined with a declared blockade focused on Saudi-linked vessels and repeated missile strikes on Saudi targets, has cut Red Sea transits roughly 40-60% below prior levels, with recent daily vessel counts around 15-26 according to maritime tracking. No formal closure has been declared by maritime authorities, and IMF PortWatch data have not yet shown the 7-day average of 10 or fewer arrivals that would trigger market resolution on effective closure. Traders price moderate probabilities for closure by year-end because selective targeting and continued commercial flows persist despite the heightened risk environment, while any escalation in ground fighting or expanded attacks could rapidly alter volumes.