Recent polling from late September shows Rui Costa (PT) leading Senate intentions in Bahia with around 46% in stimulated scenarios allowing two choices, followed by incumbent Jaques Wagner (PT) at approximately 34%. Opposition candidates João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in the mid-20s, with minor contenders well behind. These trends position Wagner as the consensus second-place finisher ahead of the October 4 election, where voters select two senators. Stable survey results over recent weeks, combined with PT's organizational strength in the state, underpin trader pricing, though high undecided shares and the dual-vote format leave room for shifts among opposition names if turnout patterns favor them.