Recent polling from late September reinforces Rui Costa (PT) as the clear frontrunner for one of Bahia’s two Senate seats, with Jaques Wagner (PT) positioned as the consistent second-place contender in multi-candidate scenarios. Surveys by Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show the two PT candidates combining for the strongest support, ahead of João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), reflecting the party’s established base in the state and Wagner’s incumbency advantage. The October 4 election allows voters to select two names, which structurally favors the leading pair in current preference distributions. Lower-polling candidates face significant name-recognition and organizational barriers that have not shifted meaningfully in recent weeks.