Rodri’s World Cup Golden Ball and Spain’s title victory anchor trader sentiment at even money against Messi, offset by the Argentine’s eight goals and four assists that powered a second straight final appearance at age 39. Voters weigh Rodri’s midfield control and collective success against Messi’s historic individual production and MLS Cup win, creating the current deadlock. With the 30-man shortlist released September 8 and voting now closed ahead of the October 26 London ceremony, any late narrative shifts around final rankings or historical precedent for repeat winners could tip the head-to-head decisively in either direction.