Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 59.5% implied probability after a record 2025-26 club campaign at Bayern Munich that produced 73 goals and 8 assists across 65 matches, plus Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup titles. His six World Cup goals for England further reinforced trader consensus on his individual output during the voting window spanning August 2025 to July 2026. Lamine Yamal sits at 15.7% on the back of consistent Barcelona contributions and Spain's strong tournament showing, while Rodri (9.5%) and Kylian Mbappé (8.6%) reflect sustained midfield control and attacking volume respectively. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia trails at 4.2% amid PSG form. Post-World Cup recalibration has stabilized these positions, with Kane's scoring volume and trophy haul maintaining separation in skin-in-the-game pricing ahead of the October ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHarry Kane 58.5%
Lamine Yamal 15.7%
Rodri 9%
Kylian Mbappé 8.6%
$29,170,484 Vol.
$29,170,484 Vol.
Harry Kane
58%
Lamine Yamal
16%
Rodri
9%
Kylian Mbappé
9%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4%
Lionel Messi
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
2%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
Harry Kane 58.5%
Lamine Yamal 15.7%
Rodri 9%
Kylian Mbappé 8.6%
$29,170,484 Vol.
$29,170,484 Vol.
Harry Kane
58%
Lamine Yamal
16%
Rodri
9%
Kylian Mbappé
9%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4%
Lionel Messi
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
2%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 59.5% implied probability after a record 2025-26 club campaign at Bayern Munich that produced 73 goals and 8 assists across 65 matches, plus Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Supercup titles. His six World Cup goals for England further reinforced trader consensus on his individual output during the voting window spanning August 2025 to July 2026. Lamine Yamal sits at 15.7% on the back of consistent Barcelona contributions and Spain's strong tournament showing, while Rodri (9.5%) and Kylian Mbappé (8.6%) reflect sustained midfield control and attacking volume respectively. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia trails at 4.2% amid PSG form. Post-World Cup recalibration has stabilized these positions, with Kane's scoring volume and trophy haul maintaining separation in skin-in-the-game pricing ahead of the October ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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