Trader consensus favors Inter Miami CF at 16.5% implied probability as defending MLS Cup champions, with Lionel Messi reaching 100 goal contributions faster than any player in league history during their recent 4-2 win over Toronto FC, positioning them second in the Eastern Conference with 25 points from 13 games. The race stays tightly bunched, however, as Vancouver Whitecaps top power rankings after a dominant 1-1 draw at San Jose Earthquakes—both tied for the Supporters' Shield lead on 29 points from 12-13 matches amid high-scoring form (+21 and +18 goal difference)—while Nashville SC (27 points, 8-3-1) dominates East standings and LAFC (21 points) remains a perennial playoff threat despite recent Concacaf Champions Cup exit and a 4-1 loss to Houston. MLS parity, 30+ games left, and single-elimination playoffs amplify upset potential across conferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedInter Miami CF 17%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 10.4%
Los Angeles FC 10%
Nashville SC 6.0%
$16,904,137 Vol.
$16,904,137 Vol.
Inter Miami CF
17%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
10%
Los Angeles FC
10%
Nashville SC
6%
San Jose Earthquakes
5%
FC Cincinnati
5%
San Diego FC
4%
Seattle Sounders FC
4%
LA Galaxy
4%
New York City FC
4%
Minnesota United FC
3%
Orlando City SC
3%
Houston Dynamo FC
2%
Columbus Crew
2%
Toronto FC
2%
Chicago Fire FC
2%
D.C. United
1%
Charlotte FC
1%
New England Revolution
1%
Philadelphia Union
1%
Real Salt Lake
1%
Colorado Rapids
1%
Atlanta United FC
1%
FC Dallas
1%
Austin FC
1%
New York Red Bulls
1%
CF Montréal
<1%
St. Louis City SC
<1%
Portland Timbers
<1%
Sporting Kansas City
<1%
Inter Miami CF 17%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 10.4%
Los Angeles FC 10%
Nashville SC 6.0%
$16,904,137 Vol.
$16,904,137 Vol.
Inter Miami CF
17%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
10%
Los Angeles FC
10%
Nashville SC
6%
San Jose Earthquakes
5%
FC Cincinnati
5%
San Diego FC
4%
Seattle Sounders FC
4%
LA Galaxy
4%
New York City FC
4%
Minnesota United FC
3%
Orlando City SC
3%
Houston Dynamo FC
2%
Columbus Crew
2%
Toronto FC
2%
Chicago Fire FC
2%
D.C. United
1%
Charlotte FC
1%
New England Revolution
1%
Philadelphia Union
1%
Real Salt Lake
1%
Colorado Rapids
1%
Atlanta United FC
1%
FC Dallas
1%
Austin FC
1%
New York Red Bulls
1%
CF Montréal
<1%
St. Louis City SC
<1%
Portland Timbers
<1%
Sporting Kansas City
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Inter Miami CF at 16.5% implied probability as defending MLS Cup champions, with Lionel Messi reaching 100 goal contributions faster than any player in league history during their recent 4-2 win over Toronto FC, positioning them second in the Eastern Conference with 25 points from 13 games. The race stays tightly bunched, however, as Vancouver Whitecaps top power rankings after a dominant 1-1 draw at San Jose Earthquakes—both tied for the Supporters' Shield lead on 29 points from 12-13 matches amid high-scoring form (+21 and +18 goal difference)—while Nashville SC (27 points, 8-3-1) dominates East standings and LAFC (21 points) remains a perennial playoff threat despite recent Concacaf Champions Cup exit and a 4-1 loss to Houston. MLS parity, 30+ games left, and single-elimination playoffs amplify upset potential across conferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions