Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 55.4% implied probability following his record 61-goal 2025-26 club season at Bayern Munich and six World Cup strikes for England, which elevated him ahead of peers despite the final result. Lamine Yamal sits second at 21.3% on the strength of his breakout Barcelona and Spain displays as a teenage phenom. Kylian Mbappé (8.8%), Rodri (6.5%), and Lionel Messi (2.9%) trail amid strong but less dominant campaigns across club and international fixtures. Trader pricing reflects Kane's unmatched goal-scoring volume and consistency in a post-World Cup window, with Yamal's rapid rise providing the clearest alternative path while older or less prolific contenders see compressed odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHarry Kane 55.4%
Lamine Yamal 21.3%
Kylian Mbappé 8.8%
Rodri 7%
$27,209,905 Vol.
$27,209,905 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Harry Kane
55%
Lamine Yamal
21%
Kylian Mbappé
9%
Rodri
7%
Lionel Messi
3%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
2%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
Harry Kane 55.4%
Lamine Yamal 21.3%
Kylian Mbappé 8.8%
Rodri 7%
$27,209,905 Vol.
$27,209,905 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Harry Kane
$3,154,458 Vol.
55%
Lamine Yamal
$1,674,326 Vol.
21%
Kylian Mbappé
$1,454,928 Vol.
9%
Rodri
$963,581 Vol.
7%
Lionel Messi
$1,784,394 Vol.
3%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
$976,002 Vol.
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
$1,667,949 Vol.
2%
Fabian Ruiz
$779,563 Vol.
1%
Erling Haaland
$1,054,162 Vol.
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
$774,130 Vol.
<1%
Jude Bellingham
$982,653 Vol.
<1%
Declan Rice
$777,263 Vol.
<1%
Vitinha
$662,066 Vol.
<1%
Michael Olise
$976,899 Vol.
<1%
Mohamed Salah
$1,056,607 Vol.
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
$1,065,399 Vol.
<1%
Pedri
$876,521 Vol.
<1%
Cole Palmer
$676,975 Vol.
<1%
Julian Alvarez
$730,868 Vol.
<1%
Raphinha
$693,084 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
$685,007 Vol.
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
$485,117 Vol.
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
$446,367 Vol.
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
$65,053 Vol.
<1%
Federico Valverde
$445,610 Vol.
<1%
Desire Doue
$723,572 Vol.
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
$737,997 Vol.
<1%
Luis Diaz
$438,259 Vol.
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
$167,259 Vol.
<1%
Rodrygo
$87,103 Vol.
<1%
Bukayo Saka
$146,735 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 55.4% implied probability following his record 61-goal 2025-26 club season at Bayern Munich and six World Cup strikes for England, which elevated him ahead of peers despite the final result. Lamine Yamal sits second at 21.3% on the strength of his breakout Barcelona and Spain displays as a teenage phenom. Kylian Mbappé (8.8%), Rodri (6.5%), and Lionel Messi (2.9%) trail amid strong but less dominant campaigns across club and international fixtures. Trader pricing reflects Kane's unmatched goal-scoring volume and consistency in a post-World Cup window, with Yamal's rapid rise providing the clearest alternative path while older or less prolific contenders see compressed odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$27,209,905End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 55.4% implied probability following his record 61-goal 2025-26 club season at Bayern Munich and six World Cup strikes for England, which elevated him ahead of peers despite the final result. Lamine Yamal sits second at 21.3% on the strength of his breakout Barcelona and Spain displays as a teenage phenom. Kylian Mbappé (8.8%), Rodri (6.5%), and Lionel Messi (2.9%) trail amid strong but less dominant campaigns across club and international fixtures. Trader pricing reflects Kane's unmatched goal-scoring volume and consistency in a post-World Cup window, with Yamal's rapid rise providing the clearest alternative path while older or less prolific contenders see compressed odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$27,209,905End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d'Or market at 55.4% implied probability following his record 61-goal 2025-26 club season at Bayern Munich and six World Cup strikes for England, which elevated him ahead of peers despite the final result. Lamine Yamal sits second at 21.3% on the strength of his breakout Barcelona and Spain displays as a teenage phenom. Kylian Mbappé (8.8%), Rodri (6.5%), and Lionel Messi (2.9%) trail amid strong but less dominant campaigns across club and international fixtures. Trader pricing reflects Kane's unmatched goal-scoring volume and consistency in a post-World Cup window, with Yamal's rapid rise providing the clearest alternative path while older or less prolific contenders see compressed odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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